Bulletin February 2021

THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WIDE BLACK SEA REGION
(GREECE, CYPRUS, IRAQ, TURKEY, AFGHANISTAN, UKRAINE)

THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WIDE BLACK SEA REGION

(Greece, Cyprus, Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, Ukraine)

(February 2021)

Greece / Cyprus

De-escalation of tensions between Greece and Turkey

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is organizing an informal international conference on the Cyprus issue, which will take place early next month. The format of the conference is five-sided with representatives from the two Cypriot communities and from the three guarantor countries (Britain, Greece and Turkey). This proves to be problematic for the Greek and Greek Cypriot sides which urge the leader of the Greek Cypriots to be present as the President of the Republic of Cyprus, in addition to being the leader of the community.

The informal status of the forum implies that the consultations will not be held in the nature of negotiations, thus resulting in neither official agreements nor commitments. However, the aim is to reveal the real possibilities for future formal negotiations.

Along with the preparations for the Cyprus issue consultations on the whole spectrum of the Greek-Turkish relations continue and a new round of talks has been scheduled for the beginning of March 2021 in Athens. The international factor fully supports the process, as it contributes to de-escalation of regional tensions. Conditions have been created for specific steps within the so-called low-key policy through cooperation in areas of mutual interest (tourism, trade, transport, pandemic and climate change) and within the set of confidence and security building measures, part of NATO's de-conflict mechanism. The key is the balance between guaranteeing national sovereignty (for the Greek side) and territorial integrity (for the Turkish side).

The current phase of “plateau” in the Greek-Turkish controversy creates favorable opportunities for regional states` initiatives, incl. Bulgaria. In this context, Greece is balancing Turkish policy in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean region. A forum for multilateral dialogue and cooperation was established in Athens (11 February 2021) with the participation of Greece, Cyprus, France, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain at the level of foreign ministers. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, all participants have diplomatic relations with Israel, and Greece / Cyprus have a privileged status. The participating countries are parties to the 1982 UN International Convention on the Law of the Sea, which creates a common legal basis for cooperation, but isolates Turkey, which has not signed the convention. The initiative is the first of its kind and is met by Ankara with particular jealousy because it associates the Arab countries against Turkey’s policies in the region.

Iraq

The adoption of Budget 2021 by the Iraqi parliament still looks uncertain after several months of a marathon of consultations between lawmakers from religious communities, mainly Kurdish and Shiite. The draft budget has been discussed in the relevant parliamentary committee and is to be submitted to the plenary hall. The Commission has adopted a correction of the budget deficit from 47% to 19% of GDP, with the total budget for this year proposed to be USD 89.6 trillion. ($ 113.1 trillion in the government project).

If adopted, the law will serve as a basis for sustainable and effective interfaith cooperation. An understanding is needed beyond the simplified agreement for a quota of 250,000 barrels per day from Iraqi Kurdistan in the production capacity of the federal oil company SOMO against financing the regional budget. A shared understanding of the integration and interconnectedness of the federal and autonomous financial, economic, energy, trade and transport spaces is needed. Consensus in this regard ensures a fair distribution of revenues from the oil and non-oil industries in Iraq.

Turkey

In the beginning of February 2021 the death of 13 Turkish citizens in Mount Gara, Northern Iraq, shaped the political and social environment in Turkey. According to the official statement by the Turkish authorities the people who had been held hostage for more than five years were executed (February 10th) by Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) fighters. The tragic incident was reported during an operation of the Turkish Armed Forces in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The breaking news deepened the controversy between the ruling party and the opposition. An exchange of verbal attacks ensued to hold those responsible accountable. From the tribune of the Majlis (Grand National Assembly of Turkey) the leader of the People's Republican Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, criticized the ruling party and blamed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the deaths of the Turkish citizens.

Kilicdaroglu's reaction could be interpreted as a staunch disagreement with the ruling Justice and Development Party's policies, an attempt to increase electoral support for the People's Republican Party, and a demonstration of political determination against attempts to split the opposition. The statement was probably prompted by a large-scale operation by the Turkish authorities (February 15th) resulting in the detention of approx. 700 members of the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party on charges of complicity and aiding PKK, which is a terrorist organization by Turkish law.

The ruling Justice and Development Party used the incident and the ensuing rise in public discontent to advance its internal political agenda. Furthermore, the ruling party aims at achieving certain regional goals. Evidence of this is Erdogan's statement (February 16th , Trabzon) that he intends to expand the operations of the Turkish Armed Forces against PKK in Northern Iraq by creating security zones in the border areas, probably similar to de-escalation zones in Syria.

This inevitably worsened relations between Turkey and Iran, which are competing for political, economic, cultural and religious influence in Iraq. Official Tehran condemned (February 22nd) the Turkish military presence in Syria and Iraq and Ankara's interference in the internal affairs of Baghdad and Damascus. It is estimated that a possible increase in the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in Northern Iraq (Sinjar) would create preconditions for future security related incidents.

Afghanistan

The Afghan talks (initiated in 2020) for establishing lasting peace in the country between the government in Kabul and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, have so far achieved insignificant progress with respect to the positions and the demands of both parties.

The security situation since the start of the peace talks has so far remained volatile, tense, even with indications and a tendency for an increase in the level of violence across the whole security spectrum. The high number of attacks by Taliban insurgents on Afghan National Security Forces, as well as the reciprocal government response through counter-terrorism operations, indicate a lack of shared understanding between both sides for the need to implement measures to stabilize the situation.

Germany's official position is clearly defined in a statement by Minister of foreign affairs Heiko Maas (February 3rd), in which he stressed that the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan will depend on the progress of the internal Afghan peace talks and will not be tied to a specific date. His statement was supported by the official statement of the NATO press service that by the beginning of May 2021 there are no plans for reduction amongst the troop contributing nations in Afghanistan.

The new administration of US President Joseph Biden has announced that it will review the agreement signed (February 29th, 2020) between the former President Donald Trump and the Taliban, which provides for a significant reduction in the US military contingent in Afghanistan. At present, the position of the new US administration is strongly supported by the Afghan leadership and formations from almost the entire political spectrum of the country.

The presence of an international military contingent on the territory of Afghanistan largely satisfies the government and personally President Ashraf Ghani. This is an indication of a reserved approach towards the negotiation process and a desire for it to be fully regulated by the United States.

Against the background of the current "stalemate" in the negotiations process, the change of President Trump and his administration, and the stated readiness of NATO countries to continue Operation Resolute Support, it is assumed that by the end of 2021 no significant progress towards political normalization and security stabilization of Afghanistan should be anticipated.

Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its work on corruption and the judiciary system in Ukraine without any results, noting that further progress is needed to revise the program, according to IMF Resident Representative Goesta Ljungman.

In December 2020, the IMF mission began work on revising the stand-by program, which is worth a total of $ 5 billion. Ukraine should receive the amount of several tranches. The first tranche of $2.1 billion is already a fact. Four more tranches of $ 700 million remain. The IMF refused to provide another tranche and began discussions on anti-corruption and changes in the judiciary. Today, IMF officials say there is no progress on the issues raised and a further revision will not be possible until the summer of 2021.

President Zelensky commented that "the program has not been implemented due to several major problems. For example, in the field of justice - the law on the Supreme Judicial Council. It has been promised for many years that there will be such a law. In the short term the impossibility of fulfilling many commitments is acknowledged.

If the IMF does not restart the stand-by program by the end of the year, it is very likely that the country will go bankrupt in early 2022. At this stage, it is expected that part of the necessary funds to maintain the national economy will be taken from the reserves of the National Bank. Another part will be provided through a new issue of funds, which is likely to strike a blow to the value of the Ukrainian mane. In the short term, it is possible that the exchange rate of the mane will reach 30 gryvnias for 1 dollar.

Meanwhile, the situation with COVID-19 in the country is deteriorating, with possible political consequences. For the last few days, a double increase in the number of infected cases has been registered. For the entire period of the pandemic in Ukraine were registered patients - 1,317,694, recovered - 1,155,422 people, deaths - 25,461 and tests performed 6,772,495 people.