06 яну
Bulletin December 2020
THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WIDE BLACK SEA REGION
(GREECE, TURKEY, IRAQ, MOLDOVA, UKRAINE)
THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION
IN THE WIDE BLACK SEA REGION
(Greece, Iraq, Moldova, Ukraine)
(December 2020)
Greek-Turkish controversies over the European agenda
The European Council (10-11 December) reviewed relations with Turkey in the context of continuing negotiations on membership and its policy in the Mediterranean. However, substantial progress was not achieved. There were preconditions for a vote on imposing sanctions or seeking new incentives (a roadmap) to urge Ankara change political course. However, decision regarding the latter was postponed till March 2021, leaving Greece dissatisfied. The agenda of the forum played vital importance for this development where priority was placed over other topics - debating a compromise to overcome the veto of Poland and Hungary on the EU budget and voting the financial package for recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Council reiterated the practice of using a systematic approach, based on a set of shared principles, during such sensitive times. Opportunities for constructive cooperation were preserved and a spiral of confrontation was prevented.
On the eve of the forum, Turkey demonstrated constructiveness and lowered the tone. A series of statements by Turkish officials (president, foreign minister, defense minister and government spokesman) reaffirmed the will for conducting the necessary legislative reforms in order the country to be granted a full-fledged EU membership. An impulse was triggered to quell the negative sentiment related to the possible imposition of sanctions by the EU and the US (in connection with the purchase of Russian anti-aircraft systems S-400). This would have caused further implications for Ankara due to: the deteriorating financial and economic situation; the need to maintain incoming funds from the EU; the inability to stabilize the Turkish Lira without sufficient foreign investment; the unfavorable geopolitical situation for after the election failure of Donald Trump, who favored the authoritarian and provocative style of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Greece consistently sought to provoke a decision for sanctions as a gradation of the already imposed ones due to Turkey`s violations in Cyprus exclusive economic zone. The arguments of Athens: the continuous exploration activity in the outlined by the Greek side border lines of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean; intervention in the Libyan conflict; illegal exploration in the economic zone of Cyprus and the opening of Varosha district for visits and business activities, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus, in violation of the UN RCC. The Greek proposal for sanctions also aimed at the cancellation of arms deals (Germany, 6 T-214 submarines), the implementation of which, according to Athens, would be beneficial to the Turkish doctrine "Blue Motherland" and would leads to a change in the strategic balance of power in the wider Black Sea region.
The real preconditions for the formation of a critical mass in support of sanctions were insufficient. This led to Athens' agreement to support a decision which ordered the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, to conduct a comprehensive review of EU-Turkey relations and possibly propose new sanctions. Essential for reaching the decision would be the examination of the legal basis of Turkish actions with respect to drillings Cyprus exclusive economic zone and conducting geological studies in Greece exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean. The imposition of an arms embargo is too ambitious since it would reorient Turkey towards military supplies from Russia and China.
The Greco-Turkish confrontation is far from de-escalating. The mixed naval exercise in the Mediterranean "Medusa - 2020" during November 2020, which involved five participating countries (Egypt, Greece, UAE, France and Cyprus) and six observing - the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Germany, Italy and Portugal, was a demonstration of the growing regional tensions with Turkey. Reciprocally Turkey responded with a military exercise (December 9 and 10) in the area of the troubled island Kastelorizo just before the session of the European Council (10 and 11 December).
Stabilizing Iraq is problematic. The United States is reducing its presence
The United States announced a reduction of its military and diplomatic presence in Iraq. By the end of January 2021 military strength would be approx. 2,500 out of 3,500 whereas diplomatic staff would be downsized by 50%. The US appears to be losing confidence in the ability of the current government in Baghdad to carry out much-needed financial and economic reforms, as well as to effectively limit Iran's presence in the Iraqi economy, military and security.
This demonstrates a partial withdrawal in Washington's commitment to the process of stabilizing Iraq. US participation in various governmental and non-governmental reconstruction and development projects is also likely to be reduced.
Iran, for its part, continues its current policy of intensive intervention in Iraq with regular visits by Brigadier General Ismail Kaani, commander of Al Quds. The assassination (January 3, 2020) of the former commander Qasem Soleimani did not lead to a change in the level of interaction between Iran and Iraq in the field of security. Coordination in the activities of pro-Iranian militias against the presence of foreign military forces in the country continues to be intense.
Moldova
In December 2020, the political situation in Moldova remained complex amid deepening differences between the ruling party and the opposition. The country has fallen into a new political and institutional crisis after President-elect Maya Sandu and the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) spearheaded anti-government protests in Chisinau and initiated a motion of no-confidence in parliament.
In the eve of the vote, Prime Minister Ion Kiku resigned (December 23rd) and dissolved the cabinet, headed by the pro-Russian Socialist Party of Moldova (PSPM). He called on Sandu to take responsibility for the situation in the country and initiate the formation of a "loyal" government, committed to organize early parliamentary elections. Leading political forces were unanimous that the current parliament has lost functionality and productivity after a third of all lawmakers left their parliamentary groups.
The PSPM is making this move in order to avoid further accumulation of negatives as a result of growing social discontent in the country, to consolidate its structures and to carry out internal reforms in preparation for the early elections. Dodon is expected to head the party again on December 30th.
Protests started as a response to the draft law № 218 voted by the parliament on December 3rd and approved on December 8th by the then president Igor Dodon. According to the changes the Information and Security Service (ISS) will fall under the jurisdiction of the legislature. Moreover, this bill limits the powers of the presidential institution represented by the newly elected head of state, Maya Sandu (inauguration on December 24th), who will neither be able to exercise direct control over ISS's activities, nor to appoint and / or dismiss the head of the service.
In mid-2019, the coalition government transferred control of the ISS to President Igor Dodon. The initiative to reintroduce to the previous model is directly linked to the presidential victory of the so-called pro-Western candidate Sandu. The Socialists' fears stemmed from the fact that she has dual citizenship of Moldova and Romania, which would create preconditions for Bucharest's interference in the country's internal affairs. Sandu's bias towards the idea of unification with Romania (Romanian unionism) and the possible strengthening of pro-Romanian sentiment in the country further motivated the government to take decisive steps to limit her powers and influence in ISS. However, the Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the opposition, annulling the bill by decision № 137.
The social situation in Moldova worsened further in December after farmers` unions went on strike. They demanded abolition of the increase in VAT and greater financial support and stimulus from the authorities due to the poor harvest. The protest was joined by representatives of the branch organizations of the restaurant owners, the ransport and other sectors, which were also seriously affected by the coronavirus pandemic. To offset growing social discontent and concentrate efforts and resources against opposition protests, the government approved (December 18th) a new package of measures to help farmers and called off the VAT increase.
Simultaneously, opposition protests lead by Sandu and PAS also spoke out against government bills on the mandatory use of Russian language in state institutions and the return of Russian-language television channels to local airwaves. They accused the government of pursuing unconstitutional reforms that distance the country from closer European integration. However, local analysts assess the social impact of the reforms as minimal. Such issues are not currently in the view of the general public, which is rather concerned about the deteriorating economic situation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in significant increase in government debt by 25% to € 3.13 billion, surge in unemployment rates and deepening social inequality.
The process of challenging the outcome of the presidential election continued in December. So far, a large number of complaints have been filed to the local authorities by Igor Dodon's headquarters with demands for thorough investigation of election fraud and violations, such as: vote buying; obstructing access of voters to the polling stations; processing of fake ballots; intervention by Romania, in particular by the President Klaus Johannes and Prime Minister Lodovic Orban, as well as by the President of the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Angret Kramp-Karenbauer. At this stage, the Court of Appeal dismisses the claims and the decision is to be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Until the early parliamentary elections are held, no significant change in the domestic political situation in Moldova could be expected. The country will highly likely continue to be torn apart by serious political, social, economic and ideological contradictions. Deepening the national geopolitical views along the East-West axis, in particular Romania-Russia, is also expected in the near term. Despite Sandu's campaign promises to proactively fight corruption, no substantial improvement can anticipated. The well-known deep oligarchic-political ties will not be broken, especially during the pre-election campaign.
Risk of internal political crisis in Ukraine
The Chinese company Beijing Skyrizon Aviation Industry Investment Co., one of the major investors in Motor Sich Corporation, informed the Ukrainian government that it filed a $ 3.5 billion arbitration lawsuit.
In 2016 and 2017, a group of Chinese companies, including Skyrizon, bought 75% of the shares of the Ukrainian joint-stock company Motor Sich. The Ukrainian company is known for the construction of airplanes and helicopters, and its patent is the legendary Antonov heavy transport aircrafts.
On September 7, 2017, Ukrainian court seized 41% of Motor Sich's shares due to a pre-trial investigation which established that unknown individuals were acting on a preliminary agreement to weaken Ukraine by liquidating the company, dividing it into parts and placing its production abroad. It later became clear that the 41% in question belonged to the Chinese Skyrizon, acquired through various companies. That same year, Skyrizon initiated a procedure to concentrate shares in the company, however, the Ukrainian Antimonopoly Commission did not allow this. After 4 years of unsuccessful attempts to seize control Chinese investors began international arbitration.
Clearly China's government interest in acquiring advanced technology in the aircraft industry is behind the actions of Beijing Skyrizon Aviation Industry Investment Co. Beijing has long wanted to establish a corporation capable of competing with Boeing and Airbus on the global aviation market.
The question is, why are the Chinese striking their "blow" right now? There are basically three reasons:
First, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world's aircraft industry is in a severe crisis. An arbitration lawsuit at this point will force the Ukrainian authorities to negotiate, as their company is already facing significant difficulties and may not survive in the near future;
Second, on November 28th 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) refused emergency financial assistance to Ukraine, which means that the state does not have the funds to secure its budget for 2021. An arbitration decision for $ 3.5 billion in 2021 will put the country in bankruptcy;
Third, the Chinese "strike" on Ukraine is an indirect blow to US policy in the region. It was Washington that strongly condemned the deal with the shares of Motor Sich in 2017 and put political pressure on the Ukrainian government not to allow the Chinese investors in the company. Now, official Washington, instead of using its political influence and helping secure another tranche from the IMF, seems to remain silent. In addition, confidence in the Servant of the People, Ukraine's ruling party, continues to plummet.
All this suggests that a serious domestic political crisis is imminent in Kiev. The Ukrainian government has no choice but to enter into negotiations with the Chinese. Another question is whether these negotiations will be successful. The new US president is unlikely to tolerate concessions from Kiev. On the other hand, Beijing extends a hand to Ukraine, but Chinese interests are always accompanied by Chinese geostrategy. It seems that 2021 will raise serious challenges for both Zelensky's political future and Ukrainian politics in general.