THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WIDE BLACK SEA REGION (May 2021)

(Cyprus, Greece, Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan)

Cyprus question

The five-party informal conference on the Cyprus issue (April 27-29, 2021) by the initiative of the UN General Assembly Antonio Guterres had the task of preparing the conditions to restart the negotiations on the Cyprus issue, suspended by 2017. On the agenda was the so-called external aspect of the conflict, encompassing the security and safeguards system, in which the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides have significant differences. The aim of the UN was to establish the similarity of views of the Greek-Cypriot and Turkish-Cypriot communities on the settlement of the Cyprus issue, which would create real preconditions for the resumption of negotiations.

The Greek Cypriot side, fully supported by Athens, has announced a formula for resolving the Cyprus issue by establishing a decentralized federation with limited competences of the central federal government. The two sides linked the Cyprus issue to Greek-Turkish disputes in the Aegean Sea. The Cyprus issue was also linked to the updating of the EU-Turkey Customs Union, with the Greek and Cypriot sides ready to veto Turkish provocations in the Aegean.

The Turkish Cypriot community, fully supported by Turkey, is adamant about maintaining the security system and guarantees, arguing that there is a real risk to its political security. They announced concrete proposals that had the potential to boost the negotiation process, but in a new framework. This was not accepted by the Greek Cypriot and Greek sides. The United Kingdom also did not accept a change in the framework of the Cyprus settlement adopted so far, enshrined in the relevant UN Security Council Resolutions.

Turkey and Turkish-Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar have demanded recognition of the so-called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" as a legitimate international legal entity, after which to resume negotiations, but in a new capacity, between two politically equal countries - Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot. The proposal is based on the nature of the Turkish Cypriot side as a co-founder of the Republic of Cyprus, on the basis of which the recognition of sovereign rights equal to those of the Greek Cypriot community is sought.

Obviously, the proposal of the Turkish and Turkish-Cypriot sides is significantly beyond the hitherto accepted framework, parameters and content of the agreements for resolving the Cyprus issue through the model of "be-zonal, be-community federation" with political equality between the two religious and ethnic communities, one nationality and one international representation.

The participants in the forum, the Greek-Cypriot and Turkish-Cypriot communities, Greece, Great Britain and Turkey, failed to form a consensus basis for the continuation of the negotiations. The Turkish side tried to provoke preconditions for a new impetus in the political negotiations by legitimizing the facts on the ground. The positions remain diametrically opposed, which keeps the process blocked.

The policy of the Greek-Cypriot side on the Cyprus issue will be preserved after the regular parliamentary elections on May 30, 2021. The percentage of those who do not want to exercise their voice is high, and the mobilization is unsatisfactory. The reasons are the negative impact of the pandemic on public confidence in political actors and the pronounced fragmentation of the political space. The new parliament includes the parties DISI (27.77%), AKEL (22.34%), DIKO (11.29%), ELAM (6.78%), EDEK (6.72%), Democratic Formation (6, 10%) and Ecology Party (4.41%).

Greece and northern Macedonia are stepping up co-operation

The Prime Minister of Northern Macedonia, Zoran Zaev, met with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, where they agreed to restart several infrastructure projects. Among them, the construction of the pipeline for oil and natural gas from Greece is of paramount importance. The contractor is the national companies of both countries ELPE and OKTA.

Next are a number of projects to diversify energy sources by reducing dependence on Russia and facilitating access from the United States, implementing green technologies and upgrading the electricity networks of both countries through interconnection with an option to other Balkan countries.

Greece's sharp reaction and vigorous action over kidnapping of opposition Belarusian journalist Roman Protasevich

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reacted sharply negatively, calling Belarus' actions "state piracy" unparalleled and shocking. (The journalist was traveling on the Athens-Vilnius route. A bomb threat was staged on board the passenger plane. A Belarusian military plane accompanied him for a forced landing in Minsk, where Protasevich was arrested by the Lukashenko regime on terrorism charges).

The case was the subject of an extraordinary meeting of the European Council on Foreign Affairs on May 24, 2021. The Greek side views the case as a direct threat to its own national security. There were also 11 Greek passengers on the flight. Protasevich was an official member of a delegation at the Delphi Economic Forum, covering the presence of Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Tikhanovskaya led an official delegation at the invitation of the Greek side.

These circumstances led to an urgent investigation by Greek special services and police to find agents of Belarus and the KGB operating on Greek territory. On this basis, Greece has called for new, even tougher EU sanctions against Belarus, arguing that it is a gross violation of the fundamental values of democracy and human rights, inconsistent with any cultural state.

Iraq

Iraq has established its role as a mediator in the dialogue between Iran and the United States (Saudi Arabia), which is gradually normalizing relations between the conflicting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. A series of meetings between senior government officials from Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the United States, took place in Baghdad in April and May, with the kind assistance of Iraqi President Barham al-Saleh and caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Qadimi. Iraqi mediation has contributed to the positive development of the process of Vienna, where active work is underway to renew the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of Iran (JCPOA) in 5 + 1 format (China, France, Russia, Great Britain, USA + Germany), together with the EU.

A direct consequence of Baghdad's mediation initiative is to stabilize the pre-election political process and, on the other hand, to restrict the provocative activities of extremist paramilitary militias seeking their own role as a political entity in the general situation due to the risk of becoming a bargaining chip of their patrons.

The Vienna process is loaded with a huge positive potential reformatting the post-conflict space in the so-called wide Middle East, which will have a direct positive impact in the wider Black Sea region. The EU is called upon to play an important mediating role in the post-war reconstruction and development of conflict regions such as Iraq through an active political, economic and security presence with a focus on migration risk. Iraq is a focal point for the security and stability of the Middle East, which requires the EU to play a leading role in its stabilization, reconstruction and development.

Turkey

In May 2021, videos in the political life of the Republic of Turkey attracted the attention of Sedat Packer, a considered nationalist, on YouTube, accusing politicians of involvement in murders, rapes, drug trafficking, illegal auctions, and abuse of power. and other.

According to social media data, over 61 million views have registered the 8 videos broadcast so far. Pecker posted his videos from Dubai, where he is currently.

The first videos contained allegations mainly against current Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu, who allegedly provided Pecker with police security and support for his business. Peker has brought charges against former Interior Minister Mehmet Agar and his son, revelations against the Pelican formation close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), considered the initiator of the removal of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and against the son of former Prime Minister - Binali Yildirim.

Impressive are recent videos in which Pecker accuses Mehmet Agar and former intelligence official Korkut Eken of sponsoring an assassination attempt on a prominent Turkish journalist in 1994. Another assassination that Pecker claims was a Kurdish lawmaker. Savash Buldan (his wife Pervin Buldan is one of the leaders of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party).

Pecker's accusations against Suleiman Soylu are damaging the AKP's image and backing the electorate. Known as an ultranationalist, Sedat Pecker is also known as close to Devlet Bahceli's Nationalist Action Party (PND), which is also Erdogan's coalition partner in the Republican Alliance. Minister Soylu made several statements on various television channels, saying he would not resign.

At this stage, the allegations appear to have failed to shake the Erdogan-Bahceli coalition, but there is growing outrage in Turkish society. For this reason, there are reasonable speculations that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will make cabinet changes to reassure Turkish society. AKP parliamentary group chairman Javit Ozkan also said Peker's allegations should be carefully investigated.

The postponed conference on the peace process in Afghanistan

The high-level conference scheduled for April 24-May 4, 2021 in Istanbul, Turkey, between the representatives of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban Movement was postponed to the end of September 2021 after extensive consultations with the countries. The launch of a similar event, co-organized by the United Nations, was aimed at speeding up peace talks that began in Doha, Qatar.

According to the Anatolian Agency, on May 27, 2021, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman held political consultations with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Yonal in Ankara. The countries discussed Turkish-American relations, regional and international issues. After the meeting, Ms. Sherman wrote on her Twitter page: "We had productive talks with Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Yonal on the situation in Afghanistan, Syria and regional issues. We welcome Turkey's continued support for more than four million refugees. We also discussed the importance of guaranteeing human rights, democracy and the rule of law. "

A spokesman for the Taliban's political office in Doha, Dr Mohammed Naim Vardak, said the movement would not attend any conferences to make important decisions on Afghanistan until all foreign forces are fully withdrawn.

Wardak's statement is in relation to news reports in the American media that US President Joseph Biden intends to postpone the final withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan until September 11, 2021, which is a symbolic date. It marks the 20th anniversary of the 2001 al-Qaeda terrorist attacks that killed nearly 3,000 Americans. The date originally agreed by the United States and the Taliban in the February 2020 peace agreement was May 1, 2021.

In April, US and European officials told the New York Times that there were at least 1,000 more troops in Afghanistan than previously reported, with a total of about 3,500 troops. In addition, there are about 7,000 NATO Allied troops and US partners in Afghanistan, which the Taliban see as legitimate targets for an attack if the United States does not leave the country completely by May 1, 2021.

Earlier, the US president spoke disparagingly of the February 2020 peace deal, saying in an interview in April that it was not a "very solid deal" made by former President Donald Trump. U.S. military leaders believe the Taliban could return to power or restore al-Qaeda if a number of U.S. forces are not stationed in the Central Asian state. Turkey, Qatar and the UN will resolutely continue their efforts to establish peace in Afghanistan.